Research · 2026-05-20 · companion to high-volume-progression.md

High-Volume Trajectories — 100 to 200+ km/wk

What plans and elite training say about the volume tail above 100 km/wk. Modal elite is 160-220 km/wk; the 80 → 180 km progression takes 3-5+ years; at 150+ km the discrete weekly cycle dissolves into daily modulation. This page visualises the cases and lets you sketch a multi-year ramp.

1 — Elite Case Studies

Documented weekly volume bands from coach interviews, published training logs, and peer-reviewed cohort studies. Click an athlete to overlay their typical week on the chart.

Selected: Eliud Kipchoge

Volume comparison — all athletes

Each bar is the documented weekly volume range. Long box = wider documented variation.

2 — Pfitzinger 18/85 — full week-by-week

The cleanest published plan that crosses the 100 km/wk line. Peak 140 km/wk wk 11. Prerequisite: must have completed 18/70 first.

Cutbacks at W6 (−12 %), W10 (−15 %), W14 (−15 %). Long runs up to 35 km. Note the peak isn't a single point — it's an oscillating ridge of 80-87 mpw weeks 11-15. This is what coaches call "the peak phase" and it's how every elite plan looks: alternating peak and mid-volume weeks for 4-5 weeks before taper.

3 — Multi-Year Ramp Simulator: 80 → 180 km/wk

Adjust the timeline. Each tier requires a real holding period. Skipping tiers is the universal failure mode in the literature.

80 km/wk
180 km/wk

Tier schedule

Tier Peak km/wk Time at tier Doubles/wk Cycles before next Source
Tier 180baseline0—starting point
Tier 2100-1156-12 months0-12 marathon cyclesPfitz 18/70 territory
Tier 3130-1406-12 months1-22 cyclesPfitz 18/85; Bekele typical
Tier 4150-16512 months3-42-3 cyclesCheptegei marathon, sub-elite Norwegians
Tier 5180+12+ months5-63+ cyclesIngebrigtsen / Bakken / Kipchoge band

4 — When Do Doubles Become Necessary?

Three convergent rules across coaches: doubles enter at 70-80 mpw (115-130 km/wk) and become universal at 150+ km/wk. They're not how to add volume — they're how to split it.

Critical rule from every source: when adding doubles, weekly km does not simultaneously increase. The structural change (single → double) and the volume jump are separate events.

5 — Cutback Patterns Change at 150+ km/wk

Below 150 km/wk — weekly 3-up-1-down works

Pfitz 18/55 and 18/70: clear cutback every 3-4 weeks at 12-15 %. Our discrete cycle is a reasonable approximation.

Above 150 km/wk — daily modulation replaces weekly cutbacks

Kipchoge: "only slight variation week-to-week." Norwegian model: macro-cycle deload (winter 180 → in-season 120) instead of micro-cycle.

Implication for Tren: at the 150+ km/wk band, dropping the discrete cycle entirely and using the continuous EWMA model is what the evidence actually supports. Tier 5 = continuous, full stop.

6 — Implications for Tren's Roadmap

  1. Add Tier 4 / Tier 5 athlete profiles. Sub-elite and elite need different parameters: shallower cutbacks (15-20 %), eventually no discrete cycle, doubles support.
  2. Doubles support is a missing feature. At 100+ km/wk, users do 9-13 sessions/wk. Our planner assumes one session/day — genuinely wrong at this band.
  3. Frandsen L30 cap matters more at high volume. A 40 km long run at 180 km/wk chronic could pass our chronic-based checks while exceeding the spike threshold.
  4. At 150+ km/wk, drop the cycle. The evidence is unambiguous — elites don't use weekly cutbacks. This is a strong case for the continuous EWMA model at the high tail.
  5. Plan mode (see todo/fasterIncrease/plan-mode-sketch.html) probably covers this band better than a separate Tier 5 path. Coach-authored plans carry the trajectory; our safety layers run underneath.
Tentative recommendation: ship plan mode first and let it cover users 100+ km/wk. Don't build a separate Tier 5 path until plan mode reveals demand. Continuous + Frandsen + monotony is probably sufficient as the safety layer for the elite tail.

Companion docs: high-volume-progression.md · published-plan-benchmarks.md · jhhr-cycle-evidence-and-continuous-formula.md · plan-benchmarks.html